CRONUS Reapers over Gaza
Beginning October 28th, aircraft began appearing on publicly accessible flight trackers that would fly from an area just south of Crete, all the way to the Gaza strip. Reporting by the New York Times published November 2nd said that these were MQ-9A Reaper drones, operated by US Special Operations forces, assisting in the recovery of Israeli hostages. In this post I will explain how I arrived at this conclusion, as well as elaborate on some specifics of the flights that have not been covered before.
MLAT Primer
Public flight tracking websites make use of a technique called "multilateration" (commonly referred to as MLAT), which looks at the time it takes for a transponder signal from the aircraft to reach four or more stations to confidently locate it in 2-dimensional space. This is especially useful in the case of many military aircraft, which do not broadcast latitude and longitude position data. A large number of US aircraft, both civilian and military, are equipped with an ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast) Out transponder, which does include position data. Frequently, US Reaper drones cannot be tracked via MLAT or ADS-B; the only cases where ADS-B tracking is possible is with the FAA-registered (General Atomics and Department of Homeland Security) drones, which are equipped with ADS-B Out. Occasionally, California Air National Guard MQ-9s can be seen with TIS-B (Traffic Information Service - Broadcast) signals, however these are sporadic and unreliable. TIS-B also does not include any unique identifying information for the aircraft.
All of this makes these tracks very, very unusual. To have an MQ-9 broadcasting a signal that can be used to uniquely identify it on public sources is something I have never seen before. In fact, even while these unique Reapers are flying, several Reapers flying out of Sigonella, Italy and Larissa, Greece can be heard talking to Air Traffic Control with REMIX callsigns and not broadcasting a signal that can be seen on public flight trackers.
Identifying the Reapers
Talking to Nicosia Air Traffic Control, the pilots of these Reapers can be heard using the callsign CRONUS, with number suffixes from 11 to 14. The controllers frequently call the aircraft "Chrome", and without the callsign being spelled out over the radio, it is impossible to know the specific spelling. For consistency's sake, I will be referring to them as CRONUS.
When these flights were first visible in late October, they could be seen transmitting squawk codes that correlated to their callsign. This was the main indicator that allowed myself and others to connect the flight tracks as seen on FlightRadar24 to the voice communications over the radio.
On the first of November, the CRONUS flights started a new pattern of squawk codes.
Squawk code is often used to denote the status of the aircraft. Squawks are usually either assigned by Air Traffic Control or by the pilot when necessary. As can be heard in the voice clips above, CRONUS11 called out their squawk as 0411 (prior to the pattern switch) and CRONUS14 mentioned squawk 2404 (after the pattern switch), both of which correlate to their respective callsigns.
The aircraft switch their squawk code shortly before entering the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region, after circling in that area for about 15 to 30 minutes. This switch, and that loiter pattern, is indicative of a hand-off between aircrews. Prior to reaching the Tel Aviv FIR, the drone is flown by pilots on the ground at the base it departed from. Upon reaching the FIR, control is handed off to pilots in the United States, and the squawk code is switched. This switch is a normal part of US drone operations, referred to as "remote-split", however to my knowledge this squawk change has not been observed before.
Due to a reduction in tracking capability (for any number of reasons, not necessarily intentional by the US), the squawk code while on station over Gaza is no longer visible. Over the time I have tracked these drones, I have seen at least nine unique hex codes, suggesting nine unique airframes. These nine airframes fill four time slots each day, for each of the CRONUS flights.
The Variant
MQ-9A Reapers originating out of Sigonella and Larissa are both known as the "Extended Range", or "ER", variant. The ER is equipped with a newer four-blade propeller as well as the ability to use up to two external fuel tanks. These upgrades allow the ER to sustain continued flight for 34 hours total with both external fuel tanks. An interaction between REMIX55, a known MQ-9A ER flying out of Larissa Air Base, and the Nicosia controller, demonstrates that the ERs in the Mediterranean can loiter for at least ten hours over a target inside the Beirut FIR.
If this is the case, why would the CRONUS Reapers loiter over Gaza for around three to five hours before turning around? Even adjusting the endurance to account for a larger payload (pods of some kind), this still would not reduce it to the point of only having three to five hours on station. I believe that these drones are MQ-9s with the Big Wing modifications, which increases the endurance up to 40 hours in a clean configuration. The Big Wing is a unique type in the region; to the best of my knowledge there are no Big Wing Reapers at Sigonella or Larissa. This would explain them coming from a base further away, and not using a REMIX callsign.
The only base nearby that consistently (and recently) has Big Wing Reapers visible on imagery is Base 201 near Agadez in Niger. Assuming that the aircraft are likely carrying mission equipment, the flight time from Agadez is very doable for the Big Wing while accounting for the time required for potential issues in the air; not so much for the ER Reaper. The presence of mission equipment (pods, sensors, etc.) reduces the endurance of the aircraft, thus realistically the ER does not have all 34 hours available for flight time, nor does the Big Wing have all 40 hours.
The Base
Nigerien Air Base 201 is located roughly 5 kilometers southeast of Agadez, the fifth largest city in Niger. It has been used for US drone operations since at least 2019, as reported by the New York Times here. The drones are maintained by the 409th Air Expeditionary Group, which has previously operated Reapers out of the Seychelles and a base near Arba Minch in Ethiopia.
It has been suggested that the flights actually originate from the base at Dirkou, a CIA drone base that was first reported on here. However, recent satellite imagery shows very little activity at Dirkou and the removal of buildings on the base.
The flight to the Mediterranean from Base 201, assuming a straight path and a consistent speed of 160 knots, would take about eight hours. This, plus an estimated three-hour transit time and a three to five hour loiter time, puts the round trip flight time at around 27 hours.
Final Thoughts
According to all the data I have collected, the CRONUS Reaper flights ended on 20 November. I do not believe these flights suggest a permanent change for US Reaper operations. There are many unique properties of these flights (transponder mode, flight path, and more) that make this feel like a one-off; I do not expect to see this sort of behavior again. It has been suggested that these flights were made visible because the Department of Defense wanted people to see them and ask about them, which to me feels likely. By analyzing the flight path and flight attributes, we can learn more about US Reaper operations, which have been (and continue to be) shrouded in secrecy.